← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 11 | 2-7-2 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 77.2% | +17.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 19.9% | -16.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.4% | -2.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +18.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.6% | +11.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aether's Embrace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |